Gold's Journey: A Peak in Sight?
Gold's Price Surge: A New Record in the Making?
Gold prices in India are on a thrilling ride, with a mere ₹2,700 separating them from an all-time high. But here's where it gets intriguing: will this upward trend continue, fueled by the US Fed's potential rate cut and a weakened US dollar?
Gold's Global Appeal: A Bullish Outlook
The gold rate today is witnessing an uptrend across global markets. With an 87% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming US Fed meeting, gold's allure is undeniable. Commodity experts attribute this rally to a combination of factors, including a declining US dollar and political uncertainties stemming from the Trump administration.
US Fed's Rate Cut Buzz: A Catalyst for Gold's Rise
Sugandha Sachdeva, Founder of SS WealthStreet, sheds light on gold's skyrocketing prices. According to Sachdeva, rising expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut have propelled gold prices higher for four consecutive months. Dovish comments from Fed officials have increased the likelihood of a December rate cut, further fueling gold's bullish momentum.
Weak US Dollar: A Supportive Factor
Sachdeva highlights how political uncertainties, including former President Trump's immigration policies and withdrawal of federal benefits for non-citizens, have added to broader uncertainties, benefiting gold. The weakness in the US Dollar Index, struggling to sustain above 100, remains a significant catalyst for gold's upward trajectory. India's surge in gold imports, reaching a record $14.72 billion in October 2025, further supports this trend.
Wedding Season: A Domestic Demand Driver
SS WealthStreet's expert points to the upcoming wedding season in India as a key domestic trigger. With nearly 45-50 lakh weddings scheduled between early November and mid-December 2025, the demand for gold is expected to soar, traditionally driving gold purchases higher.
CEPA Talks: Boosting Supply
Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Lead at VT Markets, emphasizes the potential benefits for large jewelers and bullion dealers from the India-UAE CEPA talks. These talks aim to introduce an auction-based quota system for gold imports from the UAE, increasing organized supply and helping maintain domestic premiums even with high headline gold prices.
Investment Strategy: Navigating the Bullion Market
Maxwell advises bullion investors to adopt a cautious approach, given the ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and inflation concerns. He suggests that recent volatility in gold prices presents dip-buying opportunities, offering the best value. However, he notes that silver prices may outperform gold if global demand or investor rotation accelerates.
Russia-Ukraine War: A Geopolitical Watchpoint
Sugandha Sachdeva urges investors to remain vigilant about the Russia-Ukraine war's developments. While progress on the peace framework could cap extreme upside, negotiations remain complex and far from resolution, keeping geopolitical risks alive and favoring safe-haven assets like gold.
Gold's Price Outlook: A New Peak?
Sachdeva predicts further upside for gold prices, with a key hurdle at $4,250 per ounce. A breakout could push prices towards $4,400 per ounce in the near term. If domestic prices hold above ₹1,30,000 per 10 gm (Feb 2026 contract), they are likely to aim for new highs of ₹1,34,000 per 10 gm and beyond. Key support for today's gold price is placed at the ₹1,25,700 per 10 gm mark.
Gold and Silver Prices in India
Here's a snapshot of gold and silver prices in major Indian cities:
- New Delhi: Gold - ₹1,27,130 per 10 gm, Silver - ₹1,72,130 per kg
- Mumbai: Gold - ₹1,27,350 per 10 gm, Silver - ₹1,72,430 per kg
- Kolkata: Gold - ₹1,27,180 per 10 gm, Silver - ₹1,72,200 per kg
- Chennai: Gold - ₹1,27,720 per 10 gm, Silver - ₹1,72,930 per kg
- Bengaluru: Gold - ₹1,27,450 per 10 gm, Silver - ₹1,72,570 per kg
- Hyderabad: Gold - ₹1,27,550 per 10 gm, Silver - ₹1,72,700 per kg
Key Takeaways
- Gold prices are on an uptrend due to anticipated US Fed rate cuts.
- Geopolitical risks and a weak US dollar are key factors supporting gold's rise.
- India's wedding season demand significantly impacts gold purchasing behavior.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts and broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to consult certified experts before making any investment decisions.
