Get ready for a thrilling journey into the future of energy and climate action, as we explore what experts predict for China in 2026. This is a pivotal year for China's climate policy, with hints of an emissions peak and the government's upcoming five-year plan targets.
China's emissions have been on a downward trend for over a year and a half, but the exact timing of the peak remains a mystery. In March 2026, the government will unveil its energy and climate targets for 2030, which could either accelerate or moderate the country's energy transition.
Several policy mechanisms, such as non-binding emissions targets and an expanded carbon market, are set to fully take effect this year, potentially driving the decarbonization of China's economy. However, the rise in extreme weather events, exacerbated by human-induced climate change, adds complexity to the challenge of advancing clean energy while also emphasizing the importance of adaptation.
As the US further distances itself from climate action and embraces fossil fuel expansion, particularly with Venezuelan oil, China's climate diplomacy could become a powerful catalyst for global climate efforts. Let's delve into the insights of leading experts on China's energy and climate developments in 2026.
Shuo Li, Director of the China Climate Hub, Asia Society Policy Institute:
After years of rapid growth, China, the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, may have reached a turning point. Independent analyses suggest China's CO2 emissions plateaued or even declined in 2025. The strong growth in renewable power has outpaced rising electricity demand, leading to a modest drop in total carbon dioxide emissions. This trend is recognized by China's National Development and Reform Commission, which aims to continue it over the next five years, signaling a potential peak in energy-related CO2 emissions years ahead of the 2030 timeline.
The transition from emissions growth to stabilization and early decline will be a key focus in 2026, influenced by the upcoming 15th five-year plan. This plan will set economic goals, including energy and climate targets, for 2030. Early indications suggest the plan will introduce more explicit controls on total emissions, moving beyond intensity-based targets. However, the specifics of these measures and their enforceability are still being debated. Chinese experts agree that 2026-2030 will be a critical "bridge" period, connecting continued emissions growth in the previous five years to the expected clear decline in the following five.
The central questions remain: What will this transitional period look like in practice? How will it lay the foundation for a sustained and timely emissions decline? And can meaningful reductions be achieved before the end of the decade?
Xinyi Shen, China Team Lead and Researcher, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air:
In 2026, I'll be closely monitoring whether China moves beyond high-level industrial decarbonization targets and addresses the domestic, structural constraints that have hindered progress so far. In heavy industries like steel, the main barriers are not technological but persistent overcapacity in blast furnaces and a lack of clear economic incentives for low-carbon production pathways, which lock in emissions-intensive assets.
Carbon-related trade measures, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), will test China's ability to balance export competitiveness with climate commitments. International scrutiny may accelerate substantive demand-side and policy reforms in industry, moving beyond incremental efficiency gains.
Min Hu, Director and Co-founder, Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress:
I'll be tracking all the critical energy and climate targets under the 15th five-year plan. More importantly, I'm watching whether a coherent package of measures can truly unlock green electricity demand and create a genuine market pull for renewable electricity, especially from the manufacturing sector. Balancing rapidly growing electricity demand with grid decarbonization progress is crucial for the long-term emissions trajectory.
I'm also observing how provincial and municipal governments translate the dual-carbon goals into concrete targets and sectoral implementation. Subnational action, through dual-carbon plans and sector-specific measures, is fundamental to achieving national objectives. It's essential to ensure that the momentum around zero-emission industrial parks and clean-tech manufacturing competition results in measurable, additional emissions reductions.
Biqing Yang, Energy Analyst for Asia, Ember:
2026 marks the first year of China's 15th five-year plan, ending with the target year of 2030 for carbon peaking. China's fossil fuel use in power generation shows early signs of peaking, and the upcoming years are crucial for driving this plateau into an absolute decline. As renewables expand, system flexibility and stability will become priorities.
By 2027, China aims to retrofit its coal-power fleet and deploy over 180 gigawatts of battery energy storage. Developments in coal retrofit and policies supporting battery development will be key to watch in 2026. Maximizing flexibility potential relies on continued reforms in the power market and system operations, following the milestone year of 2025, which saw substantial policy development in China's ambition to establish a unified national power market.
Yan Qin, Principal Analyst, ClearBlue Markets:
In 2026, I'm monitoring three pivotal developments in China. First, the 15th five-year plan inaugurates the "dual control of carbon" system, marking the first time industries and local governments face binding caps on total emissions, not just intensity. Watching how these national constraints cascade down to the local level is critical.
Second, the national carbon market is tightening aggressively, with the inclusion of steel, cement, and aluminum this year. Regulators are executing a "market reset," de-weighting older emissions allowances and enforcing stricter benchmarks to bolster prices ahead of the EU CBAM's full rollout.
Finally, expect a surge in zero-carbon industrial parks. Following the NDRC's announcement of 52 pilot sites, new guidelines now mandate 60% on-site renewable consumption. These "green microgrids" are becoming the primary vehicle for reducing grid reliance and certifying low-carbon exports.
Xiaopu Sun, Senior China Counsel, Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development:
2026 marks China's first year of advancing a comprehensive shift from "dual control" of energy consumption to "dual control" of carbon emissions. At the policy level, it's essential to track how this transition strengthens the governance architecture for controlling non-CO2 greenhouse gases, particularly methane.
Key developments to watch for may include efforts to strengthen measurement, monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) systems that enable facility- and company-level accountability. It's also crucial to monitor progress on the voluntary GHG emission trading scheme and the extent to which methane and other non-CO2 GHG controls are embedded in broader policy frameworks, including the environmental impact assessment system.
Finally, understanding how non-CO2 GHG data collection and management requirements are incorporated into industry policy developments, including supply chains and product carbon-footprint initiatives, is critical.
Tu Le, Managing Director, Sino Auto Insights:
China's electric vehicle (EV) industry has been a driving force in the global passenger vehicle market's shift towards clean energy. Its domestic market has already crossed a 50% new-energy vehicle (NEV) retail take rate, and exports surged 86% year-on-year to around 2.4 million units in 2025. This momentum should continue, especially as US legacy automakers pull back from EV investment in 2026.
As China's domestic demand cools this year, export pressure will intensify. However, tariffs have emerged as a growing headwind, with countries like Mexico, Brazil, Europe, and the US raising barriers, complicating the next phase of global NEV expansion. At the same time, 2026 looks like a prove-it year for next-generation battery technologies, which could unlock more range, broader use cases, and wider adoption.
The US now effectively controls Venezuelan oil, which could impact global oil prices and either slow or accelerate the shift towards clean-energy vehicles.
Yingjie Chen, Climate and Energy Program Manager, Greenovation Hub:
In 2026, a key focus will be on how China translates its 2035 "climate-adaptive society" goal into inclusive action. Finance for adaptation is critical, requiring policy guidance and scalable financing models. As climate risks increase, financing resilience in sectors like energy, transportation, infrastructure, and public health is paramount. While China's green finance taxonomy already includes some climate-adaptive activities, clear labeling and expanded coverage are important next steps.
The global goal on adaptation (GGA) indicators can help measure project impact and inform policy. Good practices, such as integrating meteorological technology with finance to enhance agricultural resilience, are already in motion. Expanding these innovative models to other sectors and regions is a key step, as these pilots can enhance policymaking and be replicated. In this process, identifying and managing risks for vulnerable groups, such as women and children, in public health and education is essential for an inclusive transition.
Prof. Scott Moore, Practice Professor of Political Science and Director of China Programs and Strategic Initiatives, University of Pennsylvania:
First, I'll be looking for details on climate and energy targets in China's next five-year plan cycle, expected to be approved in March. This will operationalize China's nationally determined contribution and its commitment to peak emissions before 2030. It will also indicate the tempo for non-fossil energy capacity growth and whether China aims for the high end of its stated emissions-reduction range.
I'm particularly focused on the promised expansion of China's emissions trading system. Given my interest in geopolitics, I'm also looking for signs of how geopolitical disruptions in Venezuela, Iran, and other regions might affect China's energy policy, especially regarding long-term contracts for liquified natural gas.
Finally, I'm observing changes to China's climate diplomacy following the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This leaves a big hole in global climate governance, and many countries will look to China for leadership and funding in this area.
Cecilia Trasi, Senior Policy Advisor for Industry and Trade, ECCO:
China's solar manufacturing overcapacity is prompting Beijing's first serious consolidation efforts. The government is introducing stricter licensing requirements and tighter energy-consumption caps for polysilicon facilities, while export-tax rebates for solar products will be abolished. At the same time, China's offshore wind technology is advancing rapidly, with the installation of the world's first 20-megawatt offshore wind turbine in early 2026 and plans for mass production of 50-megawatt dual-rotor designs.
MingYang's £1.5bn investment in Scotland signals that Chinese wind companies are pursuing entry into European markets through local production, mirroring strategies adopted by battery manufacturers. These dynamics suggest the next phase of cleantech competition will be shaped less by trade defense and more by the interaction between Chinese supply-side reforms and global market-absorption capacity.
Following a first wave of rare-earth restrictions in April 2025, Beijing announced controls in October that extended licensing requirements to additional rare earths and introduced extraterritorial provisions. While China suspended the October controls for one year, the April controls on seven heavy rare earths remain fully operational, creating persistent procurement risk for European cleantech supply chains reliant on Chinese-processed rare earths.
Yixian Sun, Senior Lecturer in International Development, University of Bath:
The biggest question is the emission peak, as it's essential to confirm if China's carbon and greenhouse gas emissions are flattening or falling. I hope China has already reached its peak and the net-zero transition is underway. Another important area is the evolution of China's cleantech industries, which have become a new pillar of the country's economy. In 2026, it's critical to see if this momentum can be sustained in China.
Given fierce competition and the gradual saturation of the domestic market, I'm also watching how Chinese cleantech companies expand their global footprint through investments in overseas manufacturing, especially as more countries want Chinese investors to create "green jobs" and transfer cutting-edge technologies.
